Two of the biggest remaining questions in the 2017 offseason revolve around Jimmy Garoppolo and Malcolm Butler. But in order to figure out those moves, it would be really helpful to know where the Patriots will stand in terms of the salary cap and free agency going into the 2018 season. According to OverTheCap.com, the Patriots will start the 2018 offseason with about $53 million in cap space.

This sounds like more than enough to take care of their free agents. But they have an awful lot of them going into next year, and some tough decisions will have to be made. They’ve got 15 unrestricted free agents to look at.

Tom Brady’s cap number spikes from $14 million in 2017, to $22 million in both 2018, and 2019, so it’s likely you’ll see some restructuring of his contract, and some possible extension. They’ll also have to decide whether or not to retain defensive tackle Alan Branch, who has a team option for $5 million next season.

The Patriots Free Agents for 2018

So let’s take a look at some of the biggest questions going into next year. We’ll start with the new acquisitions, and save the biggest question for last.

Brandin Cooks (2017 Cap Hit $1,563,198)

Rex Burkhead (2017 Cap Hit $3,150,000)

Burkhead was signed on March 14th to a one-year deal with a $1.8 million salary, a $1 million signing bonus and a $250,000 signing bonus. The one-year-deal is a prove-it deal for Burkhead; as he will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2017 season.

The former Bengal gives the Patriots depth at running back, and is a sort of hybrid back. Not really super fast, and not tremendously powerful, but a good mix of both.

If you were wondering if there’s a great highlight video of Burkhead, with a Christopher Cross soundtrack… there is.

Kony Ealy (2017 Cap Hit, $903,660)

A second round pick of the Panthers in 2014, Ealy will be looking to prove that he hasn’t reached his peak with his 5 sacks in each of the past two seasons.

If the Patriots can’t reach a deal with Ealy, letting him go would give them some draft compensation, similar to what they may get from Michael Floyd this year.

Kony Ealy – DE

				Game	Game	Def	Def	Def	Def	Def	Fumb	Fumb	Fumb	Fumb	Fumb	Sack	Sack	Sack
Year	Age	Tm	No.	G	GS	Int	Yds	TD	Lng	PD	FF	Fmb	FR	Yds	TD	Sk	Tkl	Ast
2014	23	CAR	94	15	0						1	0	0	0	0	4.0	9	7
2015	24	CAR	94	16	9	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	2	0	0	5.0	15	17
2016	25	CAR	94	16	6	1	7	0	7	3	2	0	0	0	0	5.0	19	13
Care	Care			47	15	1	7	0	7	5	6	0	2	0	0	14.0	43	37

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/25/2017.

 

Julian Edelman (2017 Cap Hit, $5,750,000)

 Tom Brady’s favorite non-Gronk target will see his deal end in 2017. No Patriots fan should have to be told of Edelman’s value. He’s not really a deep threat, he just makes big plays. He goes over the middle and picks up 11 yards when you need 10, and he makes people miss. After missing time with a broken foot in 2015, he was back to his 100 catch, 1100 yard neighborhood this year.And oh yeah, he did make the most incredible catch in Super Bowl history. And lest anyone forget, he also caught the game-winning touchdown against the Seahawks.

Edelman will be 31 for the 2017 season. For example, Wes Welker was allowed to go to Denver after his age 31 season. Will past be prologue?

It’s a pretty safe bet that Edelman would be willing to take some sort of hometown discount, but will that be enough?

Receiving & Rushing Table

			Game	Game	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rush	Rush
Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G	Ctch%	Rush	Yds	Fmb
2009	23	NWE	11	7	54	37	359	9.7	1	29	3.4	32.6	68.5%	2	5	1
2010	24	NWE	15	3	14	7	86	12.3	0	40	0.5	5.7	50.0%	2	14	1
2011	25	NWE	13	0	9	4	34	8.5	0	11	0.3	2.6	44.4%	4	8	3
2012	26	NWE	9	3	32	21	235	11.2	3	56	2.3	26.1	65.6%	4	45	1
2013	27	NWE	16	11	151	105	1056	10.1	6	44	6.6	66.0	69.5%	2	11	6
2014	28	NWE	14	13	134	92	972	10.6	4	69	6.6	69.4	68.7%	10	94	5
2015	29	NWE	9	9	88	61	692	11.3	7	59	6.8	76.9	69.3%	3	23	1
2016	30	NWE	16	13	159	98	1106	11.3	3	77	6.1	69.1	61.6%	12	57	3
Care	Care		103	59	641	425	4540	10.7	24	77	4.1	44.1		39	257	21

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/25/2017.

 

Rob Ninkovich (2017 Cap Hit $2,250,000)

Ninkovich has been the second coming of Mike Vrabel for the Patriots. He’s always around the ball. He’s never put up huge numbers, and he missed four games this past season due to a PED suspension. But he’s always been a solid performer who’s made big plays at big times.Ninkovich will be 34 by the start of the 2018 season. It was after Vrabel’s age 33 season that they dealt him to the Chiefs in the Matt Cassel deal. That was the same offseason that the Patriots brought in Ninkovich, a previously unknown player (once cut by the Saints as a long-snapper) who had only three tackles and no sacks in three NFL seasons.

Might Belichick be looking for the next Vrabel-Ninkovich type on the free agent market next year?

Rob Ninkovich – DE

			Game	Game	Def	Def	Def	Def	Fumb	Fumb	Fumb	Fumb	Sack	Sack	Sack
Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Int	Yds	TD	PD	FF	FR	Yds	TD	Sk	Tkl	Ast
2006	22	NOR	3	0	0	0	0	1						2	2
2007	23	MIA	4	0										1	1
2008	24	MIA	1	0
2009	25	NWE	15	0	0	0	0	2					1.0	14	9
2010	26	NWE	16	10	2	1	0	3	1	3	63	0	4.0	45	17
2011	27	NWE	16	16	2	30	1	4	1	3	0	0	6.5	43	31
2012	28	NWE	16	16	0	0	0	1	5	4	3	0	8.0	32	26
2013	29	NWE	16	16					2	2	3	0	8.0	42	49
2014	30	NWE	16	16	1	11	0	4	0	1	15	1	8.0	53	24
2015	31	NWE	16	16	0	0	0	7	1	1	0	0	6.5	33	19
2016	32	NWE	12	11	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	4.0	17	15
Care	Care		131	101	5	42	1	24	12	14	84	1	46.0	282	193
8 yr	8 yr	NWE	123	101	5	42	1	23	12	14	84	1	46.0	279	190
2 yr	2 yr	MIA	5	0										1	1
1 yr	1 yr	NOR	3	0	0	0	0	1						2	2

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/25/2017.

 

Dion Lewis (2017 Cap Hit $1,487,500)

The last we saw Lewis, he was lying on the NRG Field turf with an injury that appeared serious injury. It was announced, however, that Lewis had only pulled a hamstring. He’s fine now.It’s been noted on multiple occasions that the Patriots still haven’t lost with Lewis on the field (17-0).

Above all, Lewis has been a versatile and effective runner for the Patriots. He’s been a great change of pace back when paired with LaGarrette Blount. Teams that were able to contain Blount tended to have a tough time conatining Lewis, as shown in the Denver game this season. Lewis also has value as a kick returner, breaking off a big return against the Texans in the divisional playoffs.

Dion Lewis – RB

			Game	Game	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece
Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng
2011	21	PHI	15	0	23	102	1	20	4.4	6.8	1	-3	-3.0	0	-3
2012	22	PHI	9	0	13	69	1	17	5.3	7.7	2	24	12.0	0	28
2015	25	NWE	7	6	49	234	2	13	4.8	33.4	36	388	10.8	2	40
2016	26	NWE	7	5	64	283	0	15	4.4	40.4	17	94	5.5	0	16
Care	Care		38	11	149	688	4	20	4.6	18.1	56	503	9.0	2	40
2 yr	2 yr	NWE	14	11	113	517	2	15	4.6	36.9	53	482	9.1	2	40
2 yr	2 yr	PHI	24	0	36	171	2	20	4.8	7.1	3	21	7.0	0	28

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/25/2017.

James White (2017 Cap Hit $789,272)

 The hero of Super Bowl XLIX was one of the biggest bargains in football. His 14 catches against the Falcons set a Super Bowl record, as did his 20 points scored.

A 2014 fourth round pick out of Wisconsin, White has excelled as a third down back. He’s a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and another matchup nightmare. As the Ravens learned this season, you can’t cover him with a linebacker.

It’s worth remembering that the player White replaced, Shane Vereen, had 11 catches in Super Bowl XLIX against the Seahawks, and was allowed to depart for the Giants. On the other hand, the man Vereen replaced, Kevin Faulk, stayed in Foxboro for the entirety of his 13-year-career.

Do the Patriots take a runner to groom as a third-down back to fill White’s shoes in this year’s draft; or do they try to get White to agree to a Faulk-style deal to keep him around for the long haul?

James White – RD

			Game	Game	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush
Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Rush	Yds	TD	Lng
2014	22	NWE	3	0	5	23	4.6	0	11	1.7	9	38	0	11
2015	23	NWE	14	1	40	410	10.3	4	68	2.9	22	56	2	8
2016	24	NWE	16	4	60	551	9.2	5	61	3.8	39	166	0	16
Care	Care		33	5	105	984	9.4	9	68	3.2	70	260	2	16

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/25/2017.

Matthew Slater ($1,593,750) and Nate Ebner ($1,200,000)

Jackie’s son is a six-time special teams Pro Bowler. Bill Belichick tends to hang onto those guys – and other teams rarely overpay to go get them.

Slater signed a one-year extension on August 31, 2016, and another such deal could be expected this season.

The Olympian Nate Ebner will also see his contract expire after 2017, and is likely in the same boat. You would expect that the Patriots would be able to bring him back for under $2 million.

Danny Amendola (2017 Cap Hit $7,791,668)

 There’s been nothing particularly flashy about “Dola” in his four years with the Patriots. He’s made nothing but big catches when called upon. Just in this past Super Bowl, he caught a touchdown pass, caught the game-tying two-point conversion, and made a big over-the-shoulder catch on the game-winning drive in overtime.

It’s expected that the Patriots will look to renegotiate Amendola’s deal this offseason, and that might include an extension for next season. He’s clearly overpriced at almost $8 million, but he’d be a great fit at about $3 million.

Danny Amendola – WR

			Game	Game	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece	Rece
Year	Age	Tm	G	GS	Tgt	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Lng	R/G	Y/G
2009	24	STL	14	2	63	43	326	7.6	1	25	3.1	23.3
2010	25	STL	16	6	123	85	689	8.1	3	36	5.3	43.1
2011	26	STL	1	1	6	5	45	9.0	0	18	5.0	45.0
2012	27	STL	11	8	101	63	666	10.6	3	56	5.7	60.5
2013	28	NWE	12	6	83	54	633	11.7	2	57	4.5	52.8
2014	29	NWE	16	4	42	27	200	7.4	1	21	1.7	12.5
2015	30	NWE	14	7	87	65	648	10.0	3	41	4.6	46.3
2016	31	NWE	12	4	29	23	243	10.6	4	32	1.9	20.3
Care	Care		96	38	534	365	3450	9.5	17	57	3.8	35.9
4 yr	4 yr	NWE	54	21	241	169	1724	10.2	10	57	3.1	31.9
4 yr	4 yr	STL	42	17	293	196	1726	8.8	7	56	4.7	41.1

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/25/2017.

Nate Solder ($11,166,418) and David Andrews ($620,000)

Solder’s two-year, $20.6 million extension will end after the 2017 season. There is a clause in his contract prohibiting the Patriots from putting the franchise tag on him in 2018.

Solder’s been a solid left tackle for the Patriots they snagged him with the 17th overall pick in the 2011 draft; and left tackles don’t grow on trees. So replacing him won’t be the easiest thing. If they think he’s ready, they could move Marcus Cannon over there, but that’s a big if.

And like Malcolm Butler this year, David Andrews will be a restricted free agent after this season. It’s hardly likely that his negotiations will be as contentious as Butler’s have been.

And of course…

Jimmy Garoppolo (2017 Cap Hit $1,108,513)

So that just leaves us with Jimmy G.Adding up all the players above we get to $45 million… if they all agreed to come back at their 2017 cap figures. That’s not going to happen. That figure also doesn’t include Butler, who if he does come back, will be looking for well in upwards of $10 million.If the Patriots want to keep Garappolo, they’re going to need to be creative. They will have the option of franchising him, but that will cost them north of $20 million a year. Will they find some way to backload a long-term deal that would keep his cap-hit low in 2018, while still giving him enough guaranteed money to sign the deal.Will they do with him what they did with Matt Cassel in 2009? Put the franchise tag on him, get him to sign the tender, and then deal him to a team that will sign him to a long term deal?

The Patriots have options, but it’s not quite as simple as saying they can just franchise him next year with no cost to the rest of the club. There are some big decisions coming for the Patriots, and if we’ve learned anything from watching Belichick and the Patriots over the years, they’re not afraid to make big decisions with big players, and turn big name players today into big name players tomorrow.