The Road to the East’s number one seed

So here we are, in late March, and the Celtics have a realistic shot at the number one seed in the Eastern Conference. Over their last ten games, the Green have picked up three games on LeBron James and the Cavaliers. At present, both teams are both 22 games over the .500 mark. The Celtics are currently one back in the loss column.

The next 15 days will decide it. So let’s compare the road that each team will take.

Boston has eight games left. Five of those are at the TD Bank Garden. Four of them are against teams with losing records.

Cleveland has 10 games left on their docket. Five of those games are on the road. Only four of their final 10 are against teams with losing records.

Week One (March 27-April 1)

The Cavs biggest remaining test, outside of the Celtics on April 5th, may well be tonight in San Antonio against the Spurs. Greg Poppovich’s team is only 2.5 games out of the top spot in the West and has won four straight. The Spurs beat the Cavs in Cleveland 118-115 in overtime back on January 21st. Projected loss

The Celtics next contest comes on Wednesday night at home against the Bucks. Milwaukee is fighting for a playoff spot. The Celtics beat the Bucks 112-108 in overtime on January 28th. Projected win

LeBron’s team then heads on March 30th to Chicago, to play a Bulls team they haven’t beaten in three tries this season. There’s no way they lose four times in one season to a sub .500 team… is there? Projected win

On March 31st, the Celtics are at home for the 27-46 Magic. They should be able to overcome Orlando. Projected win. That same evening, the Cavs play the second night of a home-and-home against the 76ers. You’d think they should be able to pick up the win in Philadelphia. Projected win.

Projected Standings at the conclusion of April 1st

Week Two (April 2-April 7)

On April 2nd, the Celtics travel to Manhattan for a matchup with the Knicks. The Celtics are 2-1 against the 27-46 Knicks this season – who have lost eight of their last nine. Projected win.

Also that night, the Cavs host Indiana. They’re 2-o against the Pacers. This is a game the Cavs should win, but haven’t been winning lately. But, we’ll give them the benefit of the doubt, and call this one a projected win.

Cleveland is again in action at home against Orlando on April 4th. The Southeast Division cellar dwellers have won three of their last four – but against some pretty mediocre competition. We project this as a win for the Cavs.

The Celtics and Cavaliers meet in Boston on Wednesday, April 5th. If all goes according to play, the two teams would come into the game with identical 51-26 records. The Celtics will be playing at home, and the Cavs will be playing the second half of a back-to-back. The C’s are set up to win this one. If they want the number one seed, they’ll need this game. Projected win for the Celtics. 

The most difficult game for the Celtics might be April 6th in Atlanta, playing their second game in two nights. They’ll be doing so against a Hawks team that handled them 114-98. Dwight Howard and the Hawks outscored the Celtics 60-34 in the paint, and held Isaiah Thomas to just 19 points. Projected loss.

The Hawks then travel to Cleveland the next night. Back-to-back against the East’s top two teams is a tall order. Projected win for the Cavs.

Projected Standings at the conclusion of April 7th

So, in our projection, the last week of the regular season starts with the two teams tied with three games to play. The difference in schedules is most glaring here.

The Celts kick it off with their last game of the season against the Charlotte Bobcats. The Celtics will be going for a season sweep against the 33-40 Bobcats, and should get it. Projected win.

April 9th will see the Hawks and Cavs play the second half of their home-and-home; this time in Atlanta. The Hawks will need this one, and should be able to take one from the Cavs. Projected loss.

April 10th sees the Celtics home for the Nets. Nuf ‘ced. Projected win. 

That same evening the Cavs travel to the Heat. The Heatwon two of the three games between the two squads this season. Will LeBron lose three of four to his former club? Seems unlikely. Projected win.

The NBA season ends on April 12th. The Cavaliers will have a tough game against the Raptors, and the Celtics will have a slightly easier game against the Bucks. We’ll project a win for both teams.

This would give the Celtics a one game edge in the final standings.

Tiebreaker status

In the event the teams wind up tied for the number one seed; here’s the tiebreaker conditions. (From NBA.com)

(1) Better winning percentage in games against each other. If the Celtics can win on April 5th, this is a 2-2 tie.

(2) Better winning percentage against teams in own division (only if tied teams are in same division). Does not apply.

(3) Better winning percentage against teams in own conference. Right now, the Cavs have a 31-12 record against the East, a half game better than the Celtics 31-13.

(4) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in own conference. Right now, the Cavaliers have a slight edge here, with a 14-7 record against Eastern Conference playoff teams, one game better than the Celtics 14-8. The Celtics have four such games remaining – the Cavaliers have six.

(5) Better winning percentage against teams eligible for playoffs in opposite conference. If it gets this far, the Celtics win the tie-break, as they’re 8-8 against the Western Conference playoff teams this year, and the Cavs are 6-9.

(6) Better net result of total points scored less total points allowed against all opponents (“point differential”). Won’t come into play – See #5